OP-ED: Fact, Fiction and Fintech—Behind the hype of Bitcoin and M-PESA

The lines between propaganda and conspiracy theories often blur when examining the origins of groundbreaking technologies like Bitcoin and Africa’s celebrated tech innovation success, M-PESA. Both fintech phenomena offer fascinating case studies in how information is shaped and perceived.

Propaganda party

Agnostic of intent, for better or for worse, propaganda is often a tool wielded by powerful entities—be it governments, corporations, political groups, non-profit institutions or influential individuals—to shape public opinion and behaviour. It involves the intentional creation and distribution of biassed or even misleading information to promote specific agendas. 

In my view, biases themselves are not inherently problematic. It’s perfectly acceptable to acknowledge them and openly advocate for biassed positions, even though this can be socially challenging. It is the manufacture or dissemination of misleading or harmful information, whether intentionally or inadvertently, that I find concerning. Such communication often mixes fact with falsehoods and can be exploited by dubious actors to manipulate or mobilise audiences through emotional and persuasive tactics.

Side-bar: It’s often unquestioningly believed that advertising and public relations are acceptable, even commendable, practices distinct from the darker art of propaganda, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Shadow tales

Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, are widely held to be speculative explanations to real-world observations that assert hidden agendas or secretive actions by powerful groups. These theories are said to emerge from a mix of misinformation, genuine suspicion, and cognitive biases, and they tend to dismiss evidence that contradicts their narratives. While they can sometimes gain traction due to the influence of pervasive propaganda, it is widely thought that conspiracy theories usually originate from more fringe sources and are resistant to conventional scrutiny.

The ongoing debates about Bitcoin’s origins and M-PESA’s status as an entirely home-grown innovation triumph highlight the intersection of these two concepts. Bitcoin's enigmatic beginnings have fueled numerous conspiracy theories about its true creators and their intentions. Meanwhile, the narrative that M-PESA is a purely Kenyan success story has been challenged by claims suggesting external influences and interests.

Satoshi who?

In the 15 years since Bitcoin’s creation, various conspiracy theories have emerged about its origins—from claims that it was developed by the Chinese Communist Party to suggestions that it was created by benevolent extraterrestrials. One theory that has gained traction is that the US National Security Agency (NSA) may be behind Bitcoin, due to its use of SHA-256, an encryption algorithm developed under NSA guidance. This theory is partly driven by the NSA’s prior work on cryptographic systems similar to Bitcoin and the mysterious pseudonym of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, which some interpret as a nod to intelligence agencies. Critics argue that the widespread use of SHA-256 in various applications and the apparent absence of hidden backdoors make the NSA theory unlikely. 

More recently, some have suggested that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) might be behind Bitcoin. Despite these speculations, concrete evidence supporting the involvement of American intelligence agencies in Bitcoin’s creation has yet to surface.

M-PESA magic

Meanwhile, I’ve heard it provocatively asserted in hushed tones that M-PESA is arguably the most successful fintech impact investment initiative cum foreign aid project the UK has orchestrated in the post-colonial era.

M-PESA has undeniably transformed financial services across East Africa. Launched in 2007, it has revolutionised financial inclusion, serving tens of millions of customers across several African countries and facilitating transactions worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually. 

Despite its profound success, the story of M-PESA’s origins is often subject to debate. While it is celebrated as a landmark Kenyan innovation, it is important to acknowledge the role played by the British government and the UK-based Vodafone. The initial development of M-PESA was not solely driven by UK foreign aid but was fundamentally a commercial public-private venture with ambitious shared developmental objectives. 

The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), now the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), awarded Vodafone nearly £1 million to develop a mobile banking solution for Kenya’s unbanked population. This grant was matched by Vodafone, providing a total of £2 million odd in seed funding for the project. The project was taken to market by Safaricom, Kenya’s largest mobile network operator. While Vodafone is a British company, Safaricom is, of course, Kenyan. Notably, the core driver of M-PESA’s creation was Vodafone’s strategic vision in mobile financial services, coupled with Safaricom’s market knowledge and expertise in local deployment. 

At the time of M-PESA’s launch, Vodafone owned a 40% stake in Safaricom. In 2017, Vodafone transferred a 35% indirect shareholding in Safaricom to Vodacom, its sub-Saharan African subsidiary. Since then, Vodafone has retained a 5% indirect stake in Safaricom.

The intellectual property rights (IPR) for M-PESA also reflect its complex origins. Initially controlled by Vodafone Group, the IPR was acquired by Safaricom and Vodacom in a significant deal in July 2020. In what some may view as a token gesture, Safaricom and Vodacom each paid £7 million for the IPR, transferring control to a joint venture that now holds the rights. This acquisition marked a shift towards greater African ownership and control, though Safaricom remains partially integrated within Vodafone’s broader corporate structure.

It has been intriguing to observe the mix of intentional and unwitting oversimplifications in the telling of the M-PESA origin story over the years. In fairness, it is not a hollow narrative riding on vacuous hype. It mostly rings true and the socioeconomic impact is real. M-PESA has arguably done more than any other fintech innovation in Africa to shape futures at the intersection of the emerging digital economy and everyday life in the real world.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s origins remain shrouded in mystery, and the enigmatic figure of Satoshi Nakamoto and the decentralised nature of Bitcoin continue to fuel numerous conspiracy theories about its true origins and the socioeconomic intentions of its creators and proponents. Both M-PESA and Bitcoin exemplify how revolutionary technologies can be affected by narratives that blur the lines between fact, fiction, and the myriad oversimplifications that lie in between. Unravelling their true stories requires careful consideration of their commercial motivations, social impact and the interplay of various narratives surrounding their creation and evolution.

Conspiracy alert

In 2022, I collaborated with Wits University’s Humanities Faculty to produce and host the Future in the Humanities podcast mini-series. Published in celebration of the university’s centenary, the series explored pivotal issues regarding the Humanities’ role and future in today’s modern era. 

The second episode, cheekily titled Everyone Gets a Conspiracy featured Wits University academics Samuel Olaniran and Iginio Gagliardone, through whom I gained a fresh perspective on propaganda and conspiracy theories. Now, rather than viewing conspiracy theories (and some of the sketchier propaganda they wholeheartedly reference) solely as a societal menace, I have come to understand how they might be a useful tool for comprehending the nuances of evolving socioeconomic landscapes—without necessarily endorsing or propagating conspiratorial claims.

The takeaway? Beware of lazy oversimplifications regarding origin stories, the framing of social impact, and the who or what drives economic progress.

Editorial Note: A version of this opinion editorial was first published by Business Report on 6 August 2024.